CECIMO examined the challenges the sector will face in 2026 and discussed future risks and opportunities, in a context still characterized by political and economic uncertainty.
Economic situation and prospects
In 2025, the European machine tool sector continued to face a challenging economic environment, with weak demand and increased global competition putting pressure on CECIMO member companies. European machine tool production is estimated to have decreased by approximately 6.6% compared to 2024, reaching €23.5 billion, demonstrating that the slowdown has yet to ease.
This trend is also impacting Europe's position in the global market. In 2025, Europe's share of global machine tool production fell to approximately 30.8%, almost 2 percentage points less than the previous year. This trend is particularly worrying when compared to 2023, when Europe accounted for 33.4% of global production. This means that Europe has lost almost 3 percentage points of global production share in just two years, indicating a gradual erosion of its "industrial position."
Furthermore, the European machine tool market showed clear signs of weakening when considering consumption levels, which decreased by 3.7% compared to 2024, reflecting lower demand across European countries. Trade flows also declined: exports by European machine tool manufacturers decreased by 8.8%, while imports fell by 4.2%. The main export destinations for European machine tool manufacturers (excluding Europe) are the United States, China, and India. At the same time, when looking at European machine tool import flows, Japan, China, and South Korea continue to be the most significant suppliers.
Overall, these developments confirm that the sector has been operating in a challenging economic environment, impacted by slowing investment, persistent uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and weakening momentum in both European and global markets. Taken together, these factors have reduced demand for machine tools and negatively impacted the operating conditions of CECIMO members.
A similar picture emerges when looking at the order levels of the CECIMO8* index. Domestic orders decreased by approximately 1.7% in 2025 compared to 2024, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. By contrast, foreign orders increased by 1.2% over the same period, marking the first year of growth after two consecutive years of decline.
CECIMO's projections for 2026 indicate a modest improvement after two consecutive years of declining production and consumption in the European machine tool sector. Consumption and production levels are expected to increase in European countries, suggesting a possible stabilization. CECIMO's estimates for orders indicate an improvement in overall order volumes in the CECIMO8 index countries in 2026. However, this outlook remains fragile and exposed to external shocks and general market conditions and should therefore be interpreted as a transition phase rather than a full recovery.
The sector will continue to operate in a highly uncertain environment, characterized by geopolitical tensions and conflicts, trade risks, potential tariff measures, energy market volatility, and weak investment dynamics in major European economies. Since European machine tool manufacturers remain highly exposed to international trade and industrial investment cycles, any deterioration in these conditions could limit the expected recovery and potential future recoveries.
At the same time, CECIMO sees potential support from positive spillover effects related to public investment and strategic sectors such as defense, aerospace, electrification, artificial intelligence technologies, and advanced engineering. These sectors could help support demand for advanced and high-precision manufacturing solutions, but their impact will depend on timely implementation and avoiding further delays.
A stable trade environment, increased industrial investment, and effective policy measures could mark the beginning of a gradual recovery for the European machine tool sector. Without these conditions, Europe risks further weakening its position in machine tool technologies, while global competitors continue to strengthen their industrial capabilities.
"The current situation confirms that Europe cannot take its industrial leadership for granted. European machine tool manufacturers continue to operate in a challenging environment, characterized by declining demand, persistent global uncertainty, and growing competitive pressure. While some opportunities may emerge in strategic sectors, Europe needs a stable policy framework, increased industrial investment, and faster implementation of measures to support advanced manufacturing," commented François Duval, President of CECIMO.
Ucimu: orders index in the third quarter of 2026 rise (+10.5%) foreign orders (+24.7%); domestic ord
In the third quarter of 2026, the machine tool orders index compiled by the UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE Study & Business Culture Centre recorded a 10.5% increase compared to the July-September 2025 period . In absolute value, the index stood at 58.9 (base 100 in 2021). In particular, orders collected across borders grew by +24.7% compared to the third quarter of 2025, for an absolute value of 108.6. Order intake in Italy, however, decreased by 7.1% compared to the same period of the previous year. The absolute value of the index stood at 14.3. Riccardo Rosa , President of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE, stated: " Domestic demand remains weak despite the numerous ongoing negotiations. The uncertainty of the international context and the increase in energy costs are clearly impacting the activity of Italian manufacturing operators, who are postponing investments pending greater clarity. We are therefore confident ," added President Riccardo Rosa , " that Italian demand will be able to regain momentum, also supported by the hyper-depreciation measure which, in version 5.0, allows for better planning of investments, which can be spread out until September 2028. " Italian manufacturers' activity on foreign markets, however, has been decidedly dynamic. In addition to the United States, where demand remains particularly strong, Germany is also beginning to show signs of recovery: certainly good news for the Italian industry in the sector. According to data processed by the UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE Study & Business Culture Centre, in the first half of 2026 (latest available data), the main outlet markets for Italian supply in the sector were the United States (329 million euros +12.6%) and Germany (137 million euros, +7.6%), followed by France, Poland, and Spain. “In particular, the aerospace and defense sectors, as well as the energy sector, are driving orders, regardless of the country of reference,” concluded Riccardo Rosa . These are the latest sector data presented by the president of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE, Riccardo Rosa , on the occasion of the inauguration of 35.BI-MU, the international sector event taking place at fieramilano Rho from 12 to 16 October . Speakers at the meeting chaired by Rosa included Valentino Valentini , Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Enterprise and Made in Italy; Giovanni Bozzetti, President of Fondazione Fiera Milano; Simona Greco , Hosted Exhibitions Director of Fiera Milano; and Luca Durante , Head of the Capital Goods Office at ICE-Agenzia. The second part of the event featured an interview with Gian Piero Cutillo, Co-General Manager of Leonardo, and Roberto Vavassori , Executive Director of Brembo and President of ANFIA, conducted by Paolo Bricco, Special Correspondent, Il Sole 24 Ore. The event features over 400 companies , spread across a total area of 40,000 square meters in pavilions 22 and 24. The spotlight will be on machine tools, robotics, automation, additive manufacturing, digital manufacturing, artificial intelligence, measurement and quality control systems, components, and enabling technologies for the smart factory. The event, promoted by UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE and organized by EFIM-ENTE FIERE ITALIANE MACCHINE, significantly enhances the thematic cultural dimension. Over 50 events are planned , including conferences, workshops, and round tables. New features this year include two special forums dedicated to the Aerospace & Defense and Energy sectors, strategic sectors that will be analyzed through the direct testimony of production and operations directors of some of the main international players and the CEOs of several Italian SMEs. In terms of training, the VLF4EU (Virtual Learning Factory for EU) International Conference is particularly relevant, focusing on an innovative training system based on the Digital Twin of the factory. The conference will feature around thirty researchers from Denmark, France, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Italy. The relationship between young people and the world of work will be explored in depth at the meeting " Value, Future, Impact. Work According to the New Generation ," organized by ANIPLA with the patronage of the UCIMU Foundation. These conferences are part of the Skills Area 's calendar of meetings. Located in Pavilion 24, the Skills Area will host initiatives promoted by UCIMU Academy and the UCIMU Foundation . Among these, ROBOTGAMES , the automation and robotics competition for secondary school students, now in its second edition, will once again be held.
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